Managing Uncertainty Podcast – Episode #323: The Fog of War

In Episode #323: The Fog of War, Bryan Strawser explores the reality leaders face in the first moments of a crisis—when information is incomplete, conflicting, or entirely absent. Drawing on his experience during the Boston Marathon manhunt, he emphasizes that waiting for perfect information is a losing strategy; leaders must act decisively based on what they know while clearly acknowledging what they do not. The episode introduces a practical decision-making framework grounded in “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and the critical risk of “unknown unknowns.” Strawser reinforces that silence is not neutral—it is a decision that creates space for others to …